Putin’s party winning Russia election

MOSCOW – Early results showed Vladimir Putin‘s party winning more than 60 percent of the vote Sunday in a parliamentary election that could pave the way for him to remain the country’s leader even when he steps down as president.

The vote followed a Kremlin campaign that relied on a combination of persuasion and intimidation to ensure victory for Putin’s United Russia party.

With ballots from about 30 percent of precincts counted, United Russia was leading with 63.6 percent, while the Communists — the only opposition party expected to get seats — were in a distant second with 11.3 percent, said Central Election Commission Vladimir Churov.

Two other pro-Kremlin parties — the Liberal Democratic Party and Just Russia were following with 10.6 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, he said.

The Kremlin has portrayed the election as a plebiscite on Putin’s nearly eight years as president — with the promise that a major victory would allow him somehow to remain as leader after his second term ends next year.

Putin is constitutionally prohibited from running for a third consecutive term, but he clearly wants to stay in power. Many supporters have suggested his becoming a “national leader,” though what duties and powers that would entail are unclear.

“The vote affirmed the main idea: that Vladimir Putin is the national leader, that the people support his course, and this course will continue,” said party leader and parliament speaker Boris Gryzlov said after the exit polls were announced.

Pollsters said United Russia’s performance would give it a crushing majority of 306 seats in the 450-seat State Duma, or lower house. The Communists would have 57 seats.

The opposition accused the Kremlin of rigging the vote, with Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov calling the election “the most irresponsible and dirty” in the post-Soviet era.

For Russia’s increasingly isolated opposition movement, the election was more evidence of Russia’s drift away from political pluralism and democracy.

“The fact is, they’re not just rigging the vote. They’re raping the democratic system,” said former chess champion and opposition leader Garry Kasparov.

Kasparov, who was jailed for five days after a protest last weekend, spoiled his ballot by writing on it “Other Russia,” the name of his opposition umbrella group.

All seats will be awarded according to the percentage of the vote each party receives; in previous elections, half the seats were chosen among candidates contesting a specific district, allowing a few mavericks to get in. About 109 million people are eligible to vote.

Putin has presided over Russia’s transformation from a poor, chaotic country to a relatively prosperous, stable nation earning $800 million a day in oil and gas revenues.

He has cast the election as a contest between Russian patriots and “foreign-fed jackals” who he claimed would, at the behest of the West, return Russia to the poverty and instability of the 1990s.

He has lashed out at the U.S. and its allies over the past year, accusing the West of seeking to weaken Russia. And he has challenged Washington’s plans to build a missile defense system in Europe.

The Kremlin‘s opposition to the West appeals to many Russians, who suffered economically, physically and emotionally after the Soviet Union‘s collapse.

“Today everything is clear and stable in life. The president’s words always coincide with what he does. As for the other candidates we don’t know yet where they would take us to,” said Raisa Tretyakova, a 61-year-old pensioner in St. Petersburg.

Putin has said an election triumph would give him the “moral authority” to hold the government and legislature responsible for implementing his policies after he leaves office. Some analysts say he may seek re-election despite the constitutional ban.

Officials throughout Russia appeared determined to ensure a huge turnout, through pressure, persuasion and even presents. In Chukotka, voters had a chance to win cellular phones. Another Siberian region promised new housing for whichever village shows the most “mature” turnout.

Teachers, doctors and other workers across the country have said they were ordered by their bosses to vote or risked losing their jobs.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, regarded in the West as the most authoritative election monitor, canceled plans to send observers.

Putin claimed the pullout was instigated by the United States to discredit the elections. But the OSCE said Russia delayed granting visas for so long that the organization would have been unable to meaningfully assess election preparations.

Death toll for Iraqis falls

BAGHDAD – The number of Iraqis killed last month fell to 718, an Associated Press tally showed, the lowest monthly death toll since just before the 2006 bombing of a Shiite shrine provoked a vicious cycle of retaliatory sectarian violence.

The figures come as the military says violence has fallen to levels not seen in nearly two years, while acknowledging that Iraqis are still dying in unacceptable numbers.

An expert on the effect of conflicts on civilians agreed, saying that while the downward trend was positive, it needed to be kept in perspective.

“We’ve gone from horrific levels of murder to very bad, which is an improvement but not a reason to celebrate,” said Richard Garfield, a professor at New York’s Columbia University and a manager of health and nutrition for the World Health Organization.

“At these so-called low levels, there’s a massive number of excess deaths still likely to occur.”

It was the third consecutive monthly decline in the death toll of Iraqi civilians and security forces since August, when a massive suicide bombing targeting minority Yazidis in northern Iraq helped push the figure to at least 1,956.

Some 500 are thought to have perished in the bombing of the Yazidis.

At least 1,023 Iraqis were killed in September, 911 in October and 718 in November, the lowest since January 2006, when 615 Iraqis were killed, according to figures compiled by the AP from hospital, police and military officials, as well as accounts from reporters and photographers. Insurgent deaths were not included. Other counts differ and some have given higher civilian death tolls.

The number of U.S. troop deaths also declined for the sixth consecutive month, with at least 37 recorded in November, according to an AP tally based on military figures. That was the lowest number since March 2006, when 31 American service members died.

The U.S. military has said the decline in the number of deadly attacks is largely due to a troop buildup this summer of some 30,000 additional troops that enabled them to get closer to the population, as well as a sharp turn of public opinion against al-Qaida in Iraq and other extremist groups.

But American commanders and other officials have gone to great lengths to warn that militants on both sides of the Sunni-Shiite divide still pose a major threat, and violence continues.

“We’re always encouraged by any downward trend in violence, but we can’t get complacent,” said Navy Lt. Patrick Evans, a military spokesman.

“There have been improvements in security, however, militants, insurgents, extremists and criminals out there will continue to keep looking for opportunities, so we have to remain vigilant and on alert,” he added. “There’s still a lot of work that needs to be done.”

The numbers were high even before the Feb. 22, 2006 bombing in the city of Samarra north of Baghdad, which devastated the golden dome of a revered Shiite shrine. But the attack caused longstanding tensions to boil over and assassinations, bombings and execution-style killings were rampant.

November of that year was one of the deadliest of the war, with at least 2,250 Iraqis killed, dwarfing recent figures.

Garfield, the Columbia University expert, expressed concern that the recent reports of the decline in violence could tempt people to ignore the fact that the numbers are still high amid rising public criticism of the war.

“I think there is a great potential to close the door on Iraq, bring the troops home, wash our hands of it,” he said in a telephone interview from Geneva. “But the improving trend suggests that the right kind of presence of the international force can make a tremendous difference in how the Iraqis are doing and they will need that presence for a long time.”

He also estimated the count was only one-third of the actual total, underlining the difficulties in keeping track of the number of Iraqi civilians who have been killed since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003. Wide-ranging estimates cannot be confirmed due to the tenuous security situation.

Iraq Body Count, an independent organization that tracks media reports as well as official figures, estimates that 77,573 to 84,502 civilians have been killed.

In a bid to better detect trends in the violence, the U.S. military is planning to increasingly use Iraqi data while warning that both sets of information are flawed.

“We recognize that when we only use coalition reports we underreport,” said Col. Bill Rapp, a senior aide to the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus.

Rapp, speaking to reporters at a recent briefing on measuring trends, said the increasing use of Iraqi data became a priority as Petraeus shifted the U.S. command’s focus to protecting the Iraqi people. It also will help the military fill in the gaps as it draws down forces and transfers more security responsibilities to the Iraqi government in coming months.

U.S. officials acknowledge that Iraqi government data is often incomplete and imprecise as well as tainted by potential sectarian bias.

But the military is working with the Iraqis to develop an automated database of their own that would help eliminate duplicate reports, among other attributes.